Sometimes my mind makes unexpected associations. A few days ago I was talking to a couple of friends, who are of Sichuan (or Szechuan) ancestry, about the unique culture of the Sichuan province derived form its unique geographic characteristics. It's a region of fertile land surrounded by nearly impassable mountains. The climate is warm with reliable rainfall. The land is fertile. For millennia, people thrived in this secluded Shangri-la with little interest in the outside world, for they had everything they needed here. The outside world was barely aware of the existence of the haven and had no access to invade or raid it.
I was just explaining to someone else what was actually happening in ASOIAF with Petyr Baelish and his favorite pet, uh, student, Sansa Stark. According to the Sansa chapter in the unpublished Book 6, which was tossed to long-suffering fans by George RR Martin, they are safely tucked away in the impenetrable Vale. Now that Uncle Littlefinger (LF) has wrapped all the Vale lords and their armies around his little finger (no pun intended), he is the only regional leader in the entire Westeros who has stored enough supplies to survive the winter. At the moment, he has neither the military prowess nor advanced weaponry (eg, dragons) to defeat anyone or conquer anyone, but Uncle LF is playing the long game. He is waiting for everyone outside the Vale to kill each other and for the last king or queen standing to starve to death or near-death in the long winter. Then, when it's all over, all he has to do is walk out of the Vale, with dear Sansa on his arm, and the kingdom is his for the taking.
Why is he not worried about being invaded or raided for the precious supplies he has mustered? It is thanks to the geographic features of the Vale, of course, which is ...
... Just like Sichuan.
I've begun to suspect that Petyr Paelish is a mirror image of Zhuge Liang, the beloved prime minister of the Kingdom of Shu, ie, Sichuan, in the Three Kingdom period. Zhuge Liang is quite possible the most famous historical figure in the entire Chinese history, characterized in historical records as a political and military genius who was "supernaturally brilliant." He was an intellectual and couldn't slaughter a chicken if he had to, but he was said to have win multiple battles against enemies that vastly outnumbered his army.
The 3-kingdom problem was, in many ways, fundamentally the same as the war of the 5 kings, or any other such complex situations: No single party can defeat the other 2 parties, but no 2 parties can form a permanent alliance, either. The Shu kingdom was the smallest and least powerful of the three parties in this delicate balance. No one expected it to survive --- and it didn't in the end --- but, for a couple of decades, it was not conquered by either of the other 2 enemies. Later commentators tended to credit Zhuge Liang's genius for this incredible feat, but Shu's advantage was probably more geographical than intellectual. It was tucked away in the mountains that were nearly impossible to invade, and it had plenty of agriculture to support a sizable army without needing to trade with the outside world. Sieges did not work. All of this is eerily similar to the Vale in its current situation, not to mention having a leader who is "supernaturally brilliant" at politics (almost entirely lost in the TV series).
Much like Mr. Zhuge, Mr. Baelish is also an ambitious man and not satisfied with self-preservation alone in this secluded happy little kingdom. For six years (228 to 234 AC), Zhuge Liang attempted to march north multiple times to attack the strongest rival the Kingdom of Wei. Not surprisingly, he failed. The direct cause of the failure was Zhuge's death from disease, but the root cause might simply be that he took a bigger bite than he could chew. Of course, if the entire China were facing an encroaching army of the Others, along with a long winter they bring, Shu could have stayed put and waited for everyone else to freeze to death. Alas, Mr. Zhuge had no such luck. In addition, although we had a glimpse of all the stockpiles and preparations for winter inside the Vale, we have no clear idea of Mr. Baelish's military strength relative to those outside of the mountains. Both the real Sichuan and the fictional Vale are easy to defend, but striking out is an entirely different matter.
If the geographic and political situation were the only similarity between Shu and the Vale, I would have chalked it up to coincidence. However, there is more reason to suppose that the link is intentional rather than an accident. Petry Baelish and Zhuge Liang are extremely similar in some ways: Both are renowned for their cunning and plotting, especially their ability to see ten steps ahead in the chess game than anyone else and play out all possible scenarios in their heads. Both played people against each other like pawns. Both have the ambition to conquer the world. Perhaps most revealing ... Both rule through a useless boy king: LF through Lysa Arryn's son, the sickly Robin; Zhuge through his king nicknamed Ah-Dou (阿斗), whose name later became synonymous with a very weak person or a puppet controlled by someone else. The similarity is striking.
Lastly, while GRRM has never let slip that he was in any way or shape familiar with Chinese history, he did own up to having played the computer game Romance of the Three Kingdoms (originated in Japan). While the primary inspiration of ASOIAF is the Wars of the Roses, there were only TWO sides in that war: House of York and House of Lancaster. Yet, GRRM chose to set up a multiplayer game from the start.
By now we know that a character's historical inspiration isn't necessarily any indication of the character's future fate. Tyrion isn't likely to be killed in battle or by the barbarians that he brings back to Rome, uh, King's Landing and later betrays. Nevertheless, there is a certain delicious irony in Zhuge Liang's demise. I wonder how much this mirroring will carry on. Zhuge could plan and plan and plan and still life interfered. I cannot help but suspect that GRRM has a deep appreciation for life's ironies.
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